Week 10/26–10/30: Big Tech's Capex Bill and Intel's Collapse Hand SPX a Third Straight Weekly Loss as Small Caps and Defensives Rally

SPX −0.57%, NDX −1.98%, RUT +1.29%, VIX −0.15%, 10Y −5.9 bp. Chips rallied into Wednesday on Anthropic and Broadcom, then Alphabet, Amazon and Intel turned AI capex back into the market's main fear; the regime ends the week RISK-OFF.

WEEK'S KEY HEADLINES

• SPX −0.57% to 7,580.07, its third straight weekly loss and lowest close of October; NDX −1.98%, Nasdaq Composite −2.00%, DJIA −0.85%
• RUT +1.29% and equal-weight RSP +0.82% beat SPX again: a second straight rotation week out of mega-cap tech
• SPX rose three days to 7,743.98 on Wednesday (week high 7,758.43 at 11:40 AM PT, right after the FOMC), then fell Thursday and −1.82% on Friday, its worst day since June
• AI swung both ways: Anthropic's S-1 and a $63B Broadcom chip financing lifted SOX +2.82% and +3.60% Mon–Tue; Friday SOX −7.20% after Intel's guide. SOX −0.84% for the week
• Earnings: Microsoft rallied on Azure +48%; Alphabet (FCF −$9.07B) and Amazon ($77.3B quarterly capex) were sold; Intel −28.58% Friday on a weak Q4 guide. Week: INTC −24.38%, GOOGL −12.61%
• FOMC held at 3.75%–4.00% on a 10-2 vote with two hike dissents; Friday, Dallas Fed's Logan called for at least two more hikes
• Data held up: Q3 GDP 3.4% vs 3.2%, PCE and core PCE in line (3.6% / 3.1% y/y), claims 194K, consumer confidence 91.7 vs 81
• 10Y −5.9 bp to 4.929% after topping 5.04% on FOMC day; WTI $103.27 → $104.12, with one settle under $100 on Tuesday; expiring December Brent $117.64
• Sectors: 9 of 11 up; XLV +3.12%, XLB +2.79%, XLU +2.04% led; XLC −5.32% and XLK −2.03% lagged
• VIX 19.45 → 19.42, but the range was 16.21 (Wed) to 23.93 (Fri)
• Regime: 🟡 TRANSITION (Mon) → 🟢 RISK-ON narrow (Tue–Wed) → 🟡 TRANSITION (Thu) → 🔴 RISK-OFF (Fri close)
• Weekend: Doha talks on a "two-day" Hormuz reopening plan, tanker incidents in the Gulf, OPEC+ holds December output. Monday: oil −4%, ISM Manufacturing 55.5 beat, SPX back above the weekly pivot. See WEEKEND DEVELOPMENTS

THE WEEK DAY BY DAY

• Mon–Wed: three up days, but narrow. RSP was +0.11% Tuesday and −0.04% Wednesday while SPX rose
• Thursday: the index dipped only 0.30%, yet 9 of 11 sectors rose and RSP beat SPX by 150 bp. That was money leaving tech, not leaving stocks
• Friday: the chip crash and Logan's hawkish comments broke the rotation; even RUT fell 1.66%. SPX closed below the 7,590.19 midday low

→ The same story as the week before, but sharper: AI demand is strong, but the bill for AI capex now lands in free cash flow, and the market sells the megacaps that pay it.

AI AND SEMIS: FROM ANTHROPIC EUPHORIA TO INTEL'S CRASH

• Monday: Anthropic filed its S-1 to list on the Nasdaq as "ANT", with $16.29B of first-half revenue (+1,304%); SOX +2.82%. Meta plans to raise up to $95B in equity for AI; META −1.88% 🟢
• Tuesday: banks are providing $63B to fund Anthropic's purchase of Broadcom chips; SOX +3.60%, AMD +5.45%, AVGO +4.00%. Oracle expanded its OpenAI, Google TPU and Nvidia deals 🟢
• Wednesday: ORCL +10.73% after reaffirming FY2027 revenue of at least $90B; SK Hynix's record quarter lifted memory (MU +5.86%, LRCX +5.39%)
• Thursday: after-hours capex news drove the reversal: Alphabet −12.64% on negative free cash flow, ServiceNow −26.95%, Fortinet −20.09% 🔴
• Friday: Intel −28.58%, its worst day since the 1970s (CNBC), after a Q4 revenue guide of $15B–$16B vs $17.1B. SOX −7.20%, AMD −10.88%, ARM −9.97%, TSM −5.95%, AVGO −5.48%, NVDA −4.22% 🔴
• Week: INTC −24.38%, GOOGL −12.61%, SPCX −8.66%, DELL −7.04%, META −4.30%, AMZN −3.08%, NVDA −3.00%; KLAC +8.45%, TSLA +7.41%, LRCX +3.92%, ORCL +3.57%, AMAT +3.41%. SOX −15.36% for October

→ Demand for compute is not the problem; Anthropic, Broadcom and Oracle proved it again. What hurts is who pays: when a megacap's free cash flow turns negative, the market sells it, and a weak guide like Intel's pulls down the whole chip complex.

EARNINGS: AZURE REWARDED, CAPEX PUNISHED

• Microsoft (Wed after the close, fiscal Q1 2027): revenue $92.28B (+19%) vs $90.69B expected; non-GAAP EPS $4.89 vs $4.73; Azure +48%. +2.88% after hours 🟢
• Alphabet (Wed after the close): revenue $127.58B (+25%) vs $128.22B expected; EPS $2.67 excluding an $8.7B equity loss vs $3.02 expected; capex $51.36B and FCF −$9.07B. GOOGL −12.64% Thursday 🔴
• Amazon (Thu after the close): net sales $201.94B vs $202.31B; EPS $1.89 vs $1.96; AWS +39% but quarterly capex $77.3B and trailing FCF −$42.4B. It recovered from −7.24% pre-market to close −1.41% Friday 🟡
• Intel (Thu after the close): revenue $16.51B (+21%), non-GAAP EPS $0.52 vs $0.40, but a Q4 revenue guide of $15B–$16B vs $17.1B. INTC −28.58% Friday 🔴
• Chevron (Fri): adjusted EPS $5.28 vs $4.93, FCF $12.0B; CVX +1.75%. ExxonMobil's profit doubled to $15.4B; XOM +2.16% 🟢
• Visa (Tue after the close): net revenue $12.14B (+13%), non-GAAP EPS $3.48 vs $3.44, dividend +16%; V −1.15% after hours
• Cadence (Mon after the close): revenue $1.633B (+22%), non-GAAP EPS $2.11 vs $2.05, record backlog $8.2B 🟢. Verizon: adjusted EPS $1.31 beat, revenue $34.31B missed; VZ −3.49% 🔴
• Outside tech: LLY +6.63% Thursday after raising 2026 revenue guidance to $91B–$92B (LLY +11.31% for the week); UPS +5.75%, Vertiv +16.48%; Boeing −10.69%, Caterpillar −9.25%, Reddit −29.22%

→ The market pays for growth that turns into cash (Azure, Lilly, Chevron) and punishes growth that consumes cash (Alphabet, Amazon) or guides lower (Intel).

MACRO DATA: STRONG GROWTH, IN-LINE INFLATION

• Q3 GDP (advance) 3.4% vs 3.2% expected; September PCE 3.6% y/y and core PCE 3.1% y/y, both in line 🟢
• Jobless claims 194K vs 198K; Q3 Employment Cost Index 0.8% q/q, in line
• Conference Board confidence 91.7 vs 81 expected; new home sales 676K vs 650.5K; Chicago PMI 55.3 vs 56
• Freddie Mac 30-year mortgage rate 7.24%

→ Growth is strong and inflation is not falling. That keeps the Fed leaning toward hikes, not cuts.

FED AND RATES: A HAWKISH HOLD, THEN LOGAN

• Wednesday: the FOMC held at 3.75%–4.00% on a 10-2 vote; Cook and Hammack dissented for a 25 bp hike. Warsh gave no forward guidance and said he will not prejudge December
• Bear steepener on FOMC day: 10Y +5.2 bp to 5.045%, 30Y 5.361%; the Bank of Canada hiked to 2.50% the same day; the ECB held at 2.50% Thursday
• Friday 10:31 AM PT: Dallas Fed's Logan said the Fed needs at least two more quarter-point hikes; SPX fell to its 7,527.56 low over the next hour and VIX hit 23.93
• Yields still fell into the weekend on haven demand: 2Y 4.59%, 10Y 4.929%, 5Y 4.805% → 4.721%, 30Y 5.315% → 5.309%
• December hike odds: about 90% per FinancialJuice (unconfirmed); updated CME FedWatch figures were not available

→ The Fed is in no hurry to help: two dissents for a hike and Logan's comments keep December live. Lower yields this week came from fear, not from dovish policy.

OIL AND GEOPOLITICS: WTI BACK ABOVE $104

• WTI settlements: $103.27 (Oct 23) → $101.76 → $99.90 → $102.78 → $102.00 → $104.12 (+0.8% for the week); Tuesday was the first settle under $100 in this run
• Expiring December Brent settled at $117.64 Friday (+2.4%), the highest since late April; January Brent $113.43
• Drivers: Houthi attacks on Saudi oil sites (Ras Tanura, Abqaiq, Rabigh, claimed), a vessel on fire in the Strait of Hormuz Thursday (UKMTO), a 1.892M-barrel EIA crude draw; brief dips on Iran ceasefire talk
• XLE +1.00% for the week, +1.91% on Friday as money hid in energy

→ Oil above $100 is still the main macro risk. It keeps inflation sticky and gives the Fed a reason to stay hawkish.

SECTORS AND ROTATION: HEALTHCARE AND MATERIALS WIN, COMMUNICATIONS LOSE

• 9 of 11 sector ETFs rose: XLV +3.12%, XLB +2.79%, XLU +2.04%, XLY +2.02%, XLI +1.69%, XLRE +1.41%, XLP +1.31%, XLF +1.09%, XLE +1.00%; XLK −2.03%, XLC −5.32%
• Thursday was the peak of the rotation: RSP +1.20% vs SPX −0.30%, XLV +2.40%, XLRE +2.21%
• Winners outside tech: GM +15.12%, LLY +11.31%, TMUS +6.76%, GE +5.66%, LMT +5.42%; DoorDash agreed to buy Instacart for $65 per share
• Communication services was the worst sector: GOOGL −12.61%, NFLX −5.73%, META −4.30%

→ Money keeps leaving AI megacaps for healthcare, materials and defensives. The cap-weighted SPX can't go up while its biggest names fall, even when most stocks rise.

THE WEEK'S MARKET

Indices (Oct 30 close, change vs Oct 23 close):

• SPX week range: 7,527.56 (Fri low) to 7,758.43 (Wed high); record close still 7,818.93
• NDX week range: 28,093.24 to 29,848.71

Volatility:

• VIX 19.45 → 19.42; low 16.21 (Wed), Friday intraday high 23.93
• VIX9D 19.25, VIX3M 20.78: VIX9D briefly moved above VIX3M on Friday, then the curve closed back in Contango

Breadth:

• RSP +0.82% vs SPX −0.57%; RUT +1.29%; 9 of 11 sectors up
• Official weekly A/D totals: unavailable

Cross-asset:

• WTI $104.12 (+0.8%), December Brent $117.64 at expiry; BTC about $80.8K → $77.4K (−4.2%)

Option-seller angle:

• Friday's VIX spike to 23.93 restored premium, but the event calendar is heavy: Apple (Mon), midterms (Tue), AMD (Tue), jobs report (Fri)
• Avoid tight Iron Condors on NDX; prefer defined-risk spreads and smaller size on short puts in chips

WEEKEND DEVELOPMENTS

• U.S.–Iran talks: Sunday was the third day of talks in Doha; Reuters and CNBC report a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days of a deal. Iran's Araqchi said there is no final conclusion. Rubio said Saturday that Trump has not decided on strikes and prefers diplomacy; Trump said Sunday Iran will end "one way or the other" but pledged no attack before the Nov 3 vote.

→ A deal would cut oil's risk premium quickly; Monday's oil drop shows the market already leans that way.

• Iran's warnings: Khamenei promised a "geographically unrestricted response" to any threat; an Iranian official said Iran is debating whether to lift its ban on nuclear weapons, with no decision taken (Reuters).

→ Tail risk remains if talks fail.

• Gulf shipping: The IRGC said two tankers hit mines on an "unauthorized route" (Iranian state media only, unconfirmed). UKMTO reported a vessel struck by an unknown projectile; Qatar said its LNG carrier Al-Mayeda was attacked Friday.

→ Shipping risk in Hormuz has not gone away, even with talks moving.

• OPEC+: Seven producers kept December output targets unchanged; next meeting Nov 29.

→ No supply relief from OPEC+; any oil drop has to come from diplomacy.

• China: official manufacturing PMI 49.3 (Saturday), still in contraction.

→ Weak global demand caps oil's upside a little.

• Crypto: BTC slid from about $80.8K to about $77.4K over the week.

→ Weak risk appetite outside equities.

• Sunday futures open (3 PM PT): ES 7,632, NQ 28,630.75, both slightly higher (ES +0.26%, NQ +0.32% at 3:33 PM PT); WTI $102.42, Brent $111.72. By about 5:43 PM PT ES +0.41%, NQ +0.80%.

→ A calm open: no gap down, oil easing on the Doha news.

• Monday overnight and pre-market: WTI fell to about $99.64 (−4.3%) and Brent $108.71 on a draft proposal after the Doha talks; Kospi +2.24%; Oracle −4% pre-market after filing a $10B common stock offering. ES traded 7,628.75–7,693.75 overnight.

→ Lower oil is the best news for equities; Oracle's share sale is another sign of the AI funding pressure.

• Monday open (7:00 AM PT): ISM Manufacturing 55.5 vs 54.5–54.6 expected; prices paid 75.2 (from 77.9), employment 52.4. SPX opened 7,610.83 and traded at 7,640.56 near 7:50 AM PT (high 7,662.23), above the weekly pivot; VIX 18.19.

→ SPX is testing the Bull scenario below early. It still has to hold above 7,624 into the close.

NEXT WEEK PIVOTS: SPX & NQ

Weekly floor pivots: P = (H+L+C)/3; R1 = 2P−L; S1 = 2P−H; R2 = P+(H−L); S2 = P−(H−L). Yahoo Finance data, week of 10/26–10/30. Source: K2TP Framework.

SPX (cash): H 7,758.43 (Wed 11:40 AM PT), L 7,527.56 (Fri 11:50 AM PT), C 7,580.07.

• Floor pivots: P 7,622.0, R1 7,716.5, R2 7,852.9, S1 7,485.6, S2 7,391.2.
• Main pivot zone 7,612–7,624: P + prior-week close (7,623.68) + Oct 23 low (7,612.07).
• Resistance: 7,637.48 (Friday high), 7,716–7,720 (R1 + Thursday close 7,720.39), 7,758 (week high), 7,853 (R2). Support: 7,528 (week low), 7,486 (S1), 7,391 (S2).
• Bull: hold above 7,624 with VIX under 19.42 → 7,716–7,720; confirmed above 7,758.
• Neutral: 7,528–7,624 range into the midterms and the jobs report.
• Bear: close below 7,528 with VIX above ~20.8 (VIX3M) and especially above 23.93 → 7,486, then 7,391.

→ While SPX is below 7,716, favor call spreads above 7,758 and keep puts far below 7,486 until Apple, AMD and Friday's jobs report are out.

NQ (NQ=F, front month, full futures session Sun 3 PM PT → Fri 2 PM PT): H 30,178.00 (Wed 1:00 PM PT), L 28,232.75 (Fri 11:50 AM PT), C 28,534.00 (Friday 2 PM PT close, not settlement).

• Floor pivots: P 28,981.6, R1 29,730.4, R2 30,926.8, S1 27,785.2, S2 27,036.3.
• Main pivot zone 28,980–29,120: P + prior-week close (29,117.75). Thursday's close of 29,218.25 is the next resistance.
• Resistance: 29,218, 29,562 (Friday high), 29,730 (R1), 30,178 (week high), 30,927 (R2). Support: 28,233 (week low), 27,785 (S1), 27,036 (S2).
• Bull: reclaim and hold above 29,120 → 29,562–29,730; confirmed above 30,178.
• Neutral: 28,233–29,120 range. Monday morning NQ trades about 28,825, inside this range.
• Bear: close below 28,233 → 27,785, then 27,036.

→ While NQ is below 29,120, favor call spreads above 29,730 and keep puts far below 27,785 until Apple and AMD have reported.

• NDX cash reference (H 29,848.71, L 28,093.24, C 28,384.85): P 28,775.6, R1 29,458.0, R2 30,531.1, S1 27,702.5, S2 27,020.1.
• Basis: at Friday's close NQ was about 149 points above NDX and ES (7,614) about 34 points above SPX. Add that spread to cash levels when trading futures.

BOTTOM LINE

• SPX lost only 0.57%, but NDX fell 1.98% while RUT rose 1.29% and RSP 0.82%: a second rotation week out of AI megacaps.
• AI demand is not the problem. Free cash flow is: Alphabet and Amazon were sold for spending, Intel for its guide, and Oracle is now selling stock.
• The Fed held but leaned hawkish (two hike dissents, Logan wants two more hikes), while oil stayed above $100 for most of the week.
• The regime ends the week 🔴 RISK-OFF. It moves back to 🟡 TRANSITION only if SPX holds above the 7,612–7,624 pivot zone with VIX under 19.42; Monday morning's ISM beat and oil drop are testing that. A close below 7,528 opens the Bear case.

WHAT TO WATCH NEXT WEEK (PT)

• Also this week: McDonald's, Qualcomm, Uber, Pfizer, Amgen (check company notices for exact days)
• Iran: the Doha talks and Hormuz reopening; Trump pledged no attack before the Nov 3 vote
• Oracle's $10B share sale and Apple's numbers decide whether AI megacaps stabilize

Expected (Bull): SPX holds above 7,624 with VIX under 19.42, WTI below $100 and a calm midterm result. Expected (Bear): SPX closes under 7,527.56 with VIX above 23.93, oil back above $104 and a hot jobs report that lifts hike odds.

Sources: K2TP daily syntheses for Oct 26–30, 2026, the K2TP briefs for Oct 26–30 and the Nov 2 Pre-Market brief. Weekly closes from Yahoo Finance; oil settlements, news and data from Reuters, AP, CNBC, WSJ and Bloomberg; weekend news from Reuters, CNBC and Business Standard; earnings Sankeys from official company releases. Analysis: K2TP Framework.